TIME SERIES MODELS ON MEDICAL RESEARCH

Abstract

In this paper we demonstrate applying time series models on medical research. The Hungarian mortality rates were analysed by autoregressive integrated moving average models and seasonal time series models were used to examine the data of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia. The mortality data may be analysed by time series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. This method is demonstrated by two examples: analysis of the mortality rates of isemic heart diseases and analysis of the mortality rates of cancer of digestive system. Mathematical expressions are given for the results of analysis. The relationships between time series of mortality rates were studied with ARIMA models. Calculations of confidence intervals for autoregressive parameters by tree methods: standard normal distribution as estimation and estimation of the White´s theory and the continuous time case estimation. Analysing the confidence intervals of the first order autoregressive parameters we may conclude that the confidence intervals were much smaller than other estimations by applying the continuous time estimation model. We present a new approach to analysing the occurrence of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia. We decompose time series into components. The periodicity of acute childhood lymphoid leukaemia in Hungary was examined using seasonal decomposition time series method. The cyclic trend of the dates of diagnosis revealed that a higher percent of the peaks fell within the winter months than in the other seasons. This proves the seasonal occurrence of the childhood leukaemia in Hungary.