Application of MARSplines Method for Failure Rate Prediction

Abstract

In this paper MARSplines method was presented to model failure rate of water pipes in years 2015-2016 in the selected Polish city. The output parameters were chosen as three dependent variables - three values of failure rate of water mains, distribution pipes and house connections. Diameter, season, material and kind of the conduit were selected as independent variables. At the beginning of modelling 21 basis (splines) function were assumed. On a final note two functions were selected (after reduction of negligible functions). The model consists of three factors: β0, β1 and β2. The penalty for adding basis function was assumed at the level of 2. The correlation was equalled to 0.44. Relatively huge discrepancies between real and predicted values of failure rate of water mains and house connections were observed. In the future investigations concerning this problem the three separated models for each kind of conduit should be created. The calculations using MARSplines method were carried out in the program Statistica 13.1.