Comparison of Different Standards Based on Computing the Probability of Failure of Flood Protection Dikes

Abstract

Flood damage poses a major threat to many countries across Europe. One of the most disadvantageous communities is Hungary, especially in view of the fact that 23% of the total area is situated on floodplain. 97% of this region is protected by flood control dikes and the remaining 3% is generally low-value zone. Through the decades different design methods referring to flood protection dikes have been recommended with newer and newer safety factors. In a few areas of geotechnical engineering – with the presence of Eurocode 7 – the reliability based design came to the front. The performance of a certain embankment cannot be compared by considering only the safety factors of the different theories but based on computing the probability of failure values it becomes possible. The article aims to show a method of how to define the input parameters and calculate the probability of failure of a flood protection dike. Hence the reliability of different standards can be compared.