Conceptual Foundations of Evaluation and Forecasting of Innovative Development of Regions

Authors

  • Kateryna Boiarynova
    Affiliation

    Department of Management of Enterprises, National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", 03056 Kyiv , 37 Prosp. Peremohy, Ukraine

  • Olha Popelo
    Affiliation

    Department of Management and Civil Service, Chernihiv Polytechnic National University, 95 Shevchenko Str., 14035 Chernihiv, Ukraine

  • Svitlana Tulchynska
    Affiliation

    Department of Economics and Entrepreneurship, National Technical University of Ukraine "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", 03056 Kyiv, 37 Prosp. Peremohy, Ukraine

  • Sergiy Gritsenko
    Affiliation

    Department of Logistics, National Aviation University (NAU), 03058 Kyiv, 1 Lubomyr Husar Av., Ukraine

  • Iryna Prikhno
    Affiliation

    Department of Finance, Cherkasy State Technological University, 18000 Cherkasy, 460 Shevchenko Boulevard, Ukraine

https://doi.org/10.3311/PPso.18530

Abstract

The authors propose to assess and forecast the innovative development of regions using an improved methodological approach, which consists of substantiating statistical indicators of the innovative development, which are verified by correlation analysis (thereby avoiding autocorrelation between indicators of the innovative development of regions). Verification of the evaluation indicators makes it possible to determine the impact factors and the most influential indicators according to the integrated index of the innovative development of regions. Using the Bartlett method for modelling and making predictions makes it possible to take into consideration the impact of the most influential indicators on the values of the integral index, as well as to adjust the predicted values of the integral index. The calculated and forecasted integrated index of the innovative development of regions can be used by local authorities to develop measures that aim to intensify the innovative development of regions, taking into account the most influential factors for each region. The proposed methodological approach for estimating and forecasting the integrated index of the innovative development of regions was tested on the example of Polish voivodeships. To permit a more detailed consideration of the results obtained, three voivodeships, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, Pomeranian and Swiętokrzyskie, were studied and compared. The results showed that these voivodeships have different values on the integrated index, which can be attributed to different regions having different levels of innovation development. The most influential factors also differ for each of the regions.

Keywords:

innovative develpoment, integrated index, evaluation, forecasting, region, regional economic system, sustainable development, voivodeships

Published Online

2022-06-14

How to Cite

Boiarynova, K., Popelo, O., Tulchynska, S., Gritsenko, S., Prikhno, I. (2022) “Conceptual Foundations of Evaluation and Forecasting of Innovative Development of Regions”, Periodica Polytechnica Social and Management Sciences, 30(2), pp. 167–174. https://doi.org/10.3311/PPso.18530

Issue

Section

Articles