ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTION OF PARLIAMENT SEATS BASED ON POLL DATA

Abstract

Due to the multiple connections the Hungarian election system is unstable. Poll data cannot be applied directly in estimating parliament seats. In this publication we present an estimation method, which gives a relatively good estimation of distribution of parliament seats, based on the little experience and if several hypotheses are accepted. A part of the hypotheses which form the basis of our method were tested, while the other part can only be proved by time.