Forecasting Failure Rates of Electronic Goods by Using Decomposition and Fuzzy Clustering of Empirical Failure Rate Curves

Abstract

In this paper a novel methodology founded on the joint application of analytic decomposition of empirical failure rate time series and soft computational techniques is introduced in order to predict bathtub-shaped failure rate curves of consumer electronic goods. Empirical failure rate time series are modeled by a flexible function the parameters of which have geometric interpretations, and so the model parameters grab the characteristics of bathtub-shaped failure rate curves. The so-called typical standardized failure rate curve models, which are derived from the model functions through standardization and fuzzy clustering processes, are applied to predict failure rate curves of consumer electronics in a method that combines analytic curve fitting and soft computing techniques. The forecasting capability of the introduced method was tested on real-life data. Based on the empirical results from practical applications, the introduced method can be considered as a new, alternative reliability prediction technique the application of which can support the electronic repair service providers to plan their resources in the long run.