Evaluating the Modified Uncertainty MCMC Approach to Obtain Safety-Quality Index in PC Construction with Current Models

Abstract

Precast Concrete Construction (PCC) is a famous method in construction industry due to its different advantages. Nevertheless, this method has several discontinuous processes and they can enhance various uncertainty safety-quality issues. In this system, Building Information Modeling (BIM) technique plays a key role in managing of discontinuous processes to improve multidimensional safety and quality. Dimensionless parameters were used to evaluate the modified type of multidimensional BIM index (I_MBIM) as the target index using the Modified Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (MFANP) method. In fact, the importance weight of input indices on the target was determined by the MFANP approach. The results of statistical analysis in verification step indicate that MFANP is well compatible with other approaches, so this developed method was considered as a reference point. The modified uncertainty Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis was used for the validated method to determine the optimal high occurrence rate of I_MBIM. The results demonstrate that a high percentage of occurrence frequency for I_MBIM is in the range between 0.9 and 0.925. In this range, the mean optimal value of I_MBIM as a management measure for multidimensional problems is 0.912. Stakeholders in PCC projects can use the proposed high occurrence range to assess the quality-safety of construction and make appropriate decisions.