Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty Using Dynamic Combination of Predictions

  • Nuno Pinho da Silva
  • Luis Rosa
  • Wang Zheng
  • Rui Pestana

Abstract

The system operators rely on forecasting tools to promote security of supply in the case of contingent renewable generation upheaval, thus decreasing the chance of counter trading in the intraday markets. This work introduces a self-adaptive ensemble based method providing optimal point predictions under the square loss function constrained over the probability simplex. The output is used to centre a new nonparametric probabilistic power forecast that leverages linear interpolation of the order statistics, thus providing forecast uncertainty estimations. The proposed methodology shows competitive reliability, with coverage and sharpness characteristics that compare favourably with reference methods, thus enabling the perusal of forecast uncertainty in operations planning.
Keywords: Renewable Energy Integration, System Operation, Dynamic Wind Power Forecast, Forecast Uncertainty
Published online
2015-09-22
How to Cite
da Silva, N., Rosa, L., Zheng, W. and Pestana, R. (2015) “Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty Using Dynamic Combination of Predictions”, Periodica Polytechnica Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 59(3), pp. 78-83. doi: https://doi.org/10.3311/PPee.8575.
Section
Articles