The Reliability Evaluation of Antiskid Valve of CRH2 EMUs Based on Bayes Method

Abstract

This paper takes the antiskid valve of braking system as the object of the research. Two parameter Weibull distribution is established through analyzing the operational principle of antiskid valve. According to the Bayesian Reliability, the cumulative failure probability of antiskid valve is calculated. Meanwhile, the posterior distribution is obtained through Markov Chain Monte Carlo. By contrast with these two methods that the reliability of antiskid valve is obtained. According to the least square method, the undetermined parameters of the two parameter Weibull distribution were solved. Then, through the sensitivity analysis, the mathematical model is proved more robust. This paper provides a certain theoretical basis for the assessment of antiskid valve’s reliability, and it provides the reference to the other valve in braking system of rail transit vehicle. At the end of the paper, the reliability of the whole antiskid system is calculated through GO method on the basis of the parts' reliability is obtained by Bayes method.