Population Synthesis for a City in a Developing Country

Authors

  • Devika Babu
    Affiliation

    Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Calicut, Calicut Mukkam Road, 673601, Kerala, India

  • Sreelakshmi Balan
    Affiliation

    Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Calicut, Calicut Mukkam Road, 673601, Kerala, India

  • Matha Venkata Lakshmi Ranga Anjaneyulu
    Affiliation

    Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Calicut, Calicut Mukkam Road, 673601, Kerala, India

https://doi.org/10.3311/PPtr.14938

Abstract

Activity-based approach in transportation studies increased the demand for detailed disaggregate data. To overcome the tedious and costly data collection, synthesized data are widely used in activity based modeling practices in developed countries. In the case of developing economies, time, resource and monetary constraints hinder the development of new generation travel demand models. Population synthesis practices are the need of the hour in developing countries. Through this study, the authors proposed a method for population synthesis for a medium sized city, in a developing country. Details from 9901 households, collected through home-interview survey in 2011 formed the database for this work. The proposed synthesis procedure makes use of Monte Carlo process along with logit modeling technique to simulate population attributes using the survey data. The procedure is developed as a Visual Basic Application in spreadsheet platform. By adopting this method, various household level and person level attributes are simulated. Comparison of observed data from survey and simulated data showed consistent results and low differences. It is expected that this study will assist the planning authorities to better understand the city′s population characteristics.

Keywords:

population synthesis, Monte Carlo simulation, logit model, developing country

Published Online

2020-03-30

How to Cite

Babu, D., Balan, S., Anjaneyulu, M. V. L. R. (2021) “Population Synthesis for a City in a Developing Country”, Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering, 49(2), pp. 156–163. https://doi.org/10.3311/PPtr.14938

Issue

Section

Articles