Driving Forces in Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Hungarian Transport Sector

Abstract

This article examines the evolution of the long-lasting trends and factors affecting the transport sector, which is responsible for a significant part of Hungarian carbon dioxide emissions. Empirical evidence suggests that the primary driving forces behind emissions from cars are stock development and carbon intensity. In freight transport, the primary driver of decarbonization is the rate of rail freight in total freights. By 2030, motorization and the size of cars will probably increase, so no significant emission reductions are expected in this area. In contrast, the increasing proportion of rail traffic can be a substantial decarbonization reserve. By 2030, carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars could increase by 1.5 million tonnes and from freight transport could decrease by 1 million tonnes, which would mean a further increase in the sector's aggregate pollution.