Bayesian methods for evaluation fatigue tests and their application for a glider airplane Góbé

Abstract

The results of new evaluation methods of the fatigue test performed with a training glider aircraft (called Góbé) are presented. Nowadays significant additional information is available which was not taken into consideration during the original evaluation in 1976. The manufactured aircrafts survived the permitted service life without fatigue failures, and there are published data about fatigue events in real airborne service circumstances. This additional information can be taken into consideration using the Bayesian methods. In this paper the gathered information is published, the theoretical basis of the methods used will be introduced and some results will also be given. The investigation leads to statements which are valid not only for this case. On this basis it can be stated that the widely used three-parameter Weibull distribution and its usual parameter-fitting methods are dangerous.