Decomposition of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions in Hungary: A Case Study Based on the Kaya Identity and LMDI Model

Ammar Al-lami; Ádám Török

doi:10.3311/PPtr.37552

Authors

Ammar Al-lami

Affiliation

Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3., H-1111 Budapest, Hungary
Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Misan, P. O. B. 132, 62001 Misan, Iraq
Ádám Török

Affiliation

Department of Transport Technology and Economics, Faculty of Transportation Engineering and Vehicle Engineering, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3., H-1111 Budapest, Hungary
Strategic, Research-Development and Innovation Directorate, KTI Nonprofit Ltd., Than Karoly str. 3-5., H-1119 Budapest, Hungary

Abstract

Elevated levels of global greenhouse gases (GHGs), primarily produced through fossil fuel combustion, present environmental risks such as prolonged droughts, global warming, and catastrophic floods. Despite raising awareness and international efforts to combat climate change, fossil fuel and GHGs demand persists. At this juncture, this study investigates Hungary's transportation sector, a notable CO₂ emitter. Using the Kaya Identity and Log Mean Divisia Index method, this study decomposes the primary components of CO₂ emissions in Hungary's transport sectors from 2001-2021. This analysis is done in two decomposition levels, annual and periodic decomposition analysis for each of the five years starting from 2001. The analysis reveals that the economic activity effect ∆C_GPE is the predominant driver of CO₂ emissions, while the energy intensity effect ∆C_EIE improvements have substantially mitigated these increases. Population changes affect ∆C_POPE, and the carbon emission intensity effect ∆C_CEIE has had minimal impacts. The study provides insights and recommendations for policy and strategic interventions to reduce emissions and promote sustainable transportation practices in Hungary.