Validity of the TRINCA Model (1988) in Current European Road Safety Assessment: A Comparative Study Using Recent Data

Abstract

Road safety is a growing concern in Europe, with significant changes in traffic conditions, vehicle technology, and safety regulations over the past decades. The TRINCA model (1988) was historically effective in assessing road safety through two key indicators: Personal and Road Safety. However, its validity in the current context has become questionable due to evolving road safety measures. This study examines the applicability of the TRINCA model using recent data from 27 European countries for the years 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Countries were divided into four geographical regions, and a T-test analysis was performed to compare the observed data against the model's predictions. The results reveal significant discrepancies, particularly after 2015, with P-values indicating statistically solid significance (P ≤ 0.05 to P ≤ 0.001). These findings suggest that the TRINCA model no longer accurately represents current road safety trends and highlights the need for an updated framework incorporating recent advancements in vehicle technology, infrastructure improvements, and updated traffic regulations.