Analysis of Road Accidents in Poland and EU Countries in the Context of Implementing Vision Zero

Abstract

The article presents a comparative analysis of road traffic fatalities in Poland and the European Union (EU-27) in the context of implementing the "Vision Zero" strategy. The study covers the period 2014–2023 and employs absolute and per capita indicators (fatalities per 1 million inhabitants) to assess safety trends. Log-linear models and joinpoint analysis were applied to estimate the average annual percent change (APC) and identify shifts in trend dynamics. Results indicate a significant reduction in road fatalities in Poland (−40.9% absolute, −38.1% per 1 million inhabitants) and in the EU-27 (−15.6% absolute, −16.4% per 1 million inhabitants). The APC in Poland (−5.68% absolute, −5.26% per capita) was more than twice as high as the EU average, with a notable acceleration after 2019, likely influenced by infrastructure improvements, enhanced law enforcement, and pandemic-related traffic reductions. Despite progress, Poland's fatality rate remains slightly above the EU average, highlighting the need for continued system-wide safety measures. The findings demonstrate the effectiveness of a Safe System Approach and provide evidence-based recommendations for achieving the intermediate 2030 targets of Vision Zero.