MODEL FOR SUPPLY-DEPENDENT MODAL CHOICE BEHAVIOUR IN URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT

Abstract

In the course of the past two decades, numerous models for determining the choice of trans- port modes have been developed, and have been continuously improved and sophisticated. An analysis of approximately 25 papers from 1984 [2] deals among other topics with re- search reports published since 1970 on the subject of 'modal-split'. However, all models proved too insensitive to estimate the effects of demand-influencing measures on transport phenomena. These may, for example, include the reaction of the population to fuel price increases, the introduction of so-called 'environmental tickets' in public transport, parking restrictions in inner-city areas, measures to speed up public transport services or improve their punctuality or increased parking fees for private cars. In each case, the question is: What effect does such a measure have on the expected shift in traffic flows between the various means of transport available in urban transport (walking, cycling, car, bus, light-rail, underground, regional express system (S-Bahn))? The answer to this question in particular forms the overall basis for deciding in favour of or against a specific measure. The decision base may be the transport economics, transport planning, transport policy or environmental policy level. The disadvantages of insufficient sensitivity in the models noted above have still not been eliminated, especially as they fail to achieve adequate qualification of the intricately interlinked supply structures of walking, cycling, public transport and private car transport together with personal income situations.